Kind hearts and cool heads.

Travel in 2022 will be one step at a time.

The forest around Zaborin, Niseko, Japan. Photo tony@tonyamos.com

We made it to 2022.

I wish everyone a healthy year ahead and send my gratitude to those of you who have supported A Real Trip with subscriptions. Please do take the time to subscribe, if you haven’t yet. And suggest to friends they sign on for weekly updates, especially those who plan to travel this year - every new subscriber is such a tonic and encourages me to keep going.

Although it’s summer down here in the Southern Hemisphere, I’ve posted a photo from a memorable visit a few years ago to the beautiful modern ryokan, Zaborin, near the snowfields of Niseko in Japan. Although counter-intuitive, it seemed the right image to me because we need cool heads now, more than ever.

Along with kind hearts.

I admit I expected 2022 to start a bit differently to this.

We’re beginning the year having to navigate a completely new set of rules about the pandemic.

In this part of the world, we’ve been conditioned to obsess about the number of COVID cases in the community. For almost two years we’ve been glued to the daily ritual of press conferences, where case numbers have been revealed, including every detail of who caught it and where, what the R number might be and how many poor souls have ended up in ICU.

Not so long ago, fifty cases a day seemed a pathway to disaster. Now, in the populous Australian state of NSW, we’re told not to worry about 25,000 cases a day. Or 100,000.

Indeed, we’re told not to worry about the fact that we don’t even know the number of cases, because statistics don’t account for the vast number of people self-diagnosing at home, who haven’t been physically able to wait on line for hours to take a PCR test, or can’t get hold of a Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) because they’re scarcer than accountable politicians.

This happened so fast and with no opportunity to have a say in it, people are reeling. Omicron may very well be ‘mild’ in healthy and triple-vaccinated people, and cause no ‘long’ COVID, but it’s all still unclear and all of us have vulnerable friends and family members, whether it’s an elderly parent or a unvaccinated toddler, or someone we care about who is immunocompromised, and we’re worried.

(Note: ‘mild’ only means not needing hospitalisation - it can still be a beast of an illness, according to many who are currently going through it. Double-vaxxed comedian PaulMcDermott (@YoungMasterPaul) is just one who is recovering from a harrowing time with COVID. He writes about the ‘almost hallucinogenic agony.’)

For two years, people did their bit as part of the social contract. Masking up, isolating, staying away from superspreader events, giving up travel, not seeing family for aching months on end. It was exceptionally heartening that people, in thumping numbers, understood this was part of being a community.

No wonder there’s a sense of betrayal when governments suddenly decide we’re on our own and then bungle the usual support systems that help us manage it. And after two years of ‘following the science’ we’re now following…the free market?

Most people I know started the year lying low, being cautious, in voluntary lockdown, not just for themselves but for others. Again, I am reassured by this sense of community spirit. We have shown we are here for each other.

It’s what we need to go on with.

For travel, especially international travel, it’s one step at a time.

Many cautious people have a wait-and-see attitude but, even among these, I think most imagined that mid-2022 or the European summer was going to be all clear for that overseas trip. I certainly did.

Luxury Escapes surveyed over 1000 users of its popular holiday booking website at the end of 2021 and 9 out of 10 respondents had booked or intended to rebook international travel in 2022. It’s a small sample but it shows the enthusiasm out there for moving on.

My gut feeling is that Omicron hasn’t dinted people’s optimism too much. A lot of coming travel will be driven by the heart. Reuniting with cherished friends and family. Revisiting much-loved places.

Nevertheless, Omicron has added another layer to the complexities of travel. Getting ill from catching COVID probably is not the main thing that worries travellers now, even as Omicron outruns health systems. With the ultra-contagious variant endemic in many countries, it’s estimated we now have double the risk of catching it on a plane. But it’s also many times more likely we’ll catch it in the supermarket, pub or shopping mall.

If we’ve been lucky enough to have boosters, travel is no less safe in this respect than staying home.

What concerns travellers most, I think, are the disruptions, especially flight cancellations, most caused by staff shortages due to flight crews testing positive to COVID. Airlines laid off staff at the beginning of the pandemic and haven’t geared up yet. Just this Sunday alone, more than 2600 flights were cancelled across the USA.

Then there’s the personal toll of cancelling plans at short notice if your RAT or PCR reads positive in the hours before you fly. Will travel insurance be adequate? What about the emotional cost of the stress and disappointment? Or of quarantining many miles from home?

Will it continue to be relatively easy for Australians to move around the world? Australia currently is rated a ‘green zone’ country, as we have had one of the lowest rates of infection per capita in the world. That means we can enter countries like the UK and France with full vaccination and a negative PCR test, but not quarantine. But now, the state of NSW has one of the highest rates of infection, higher than even the USA, Spain and Italy.

Losing green zone status would mean stricter entry rules for various countries, and mandatory quarantine in some cases. It hasn’t happened yet, but already some of our favourite destinations are tightening the rules in the face of Omicron.

Fiji, which remains open only to fully-vaccinated travellers, just added the requirement that all travellers (12 years+) must produce a negative PCR test taken no more than two calendar days prior to the scheduled day of departure. This applies to anyone disembarking in and transiting through Fiji.

Thailand just reinstated mandatory 7-10 day hotel quarantine for international visitors. Only Phuket is exempt, remaining a “sandbox” destination where visitors are limited to the island but have free movement outside their accommodation.

Japan is closed to all travellers except residents and visa holders, except in compassionate circumstances. Travellers from Australia may need to quarantine for 6 days at a designated quarantine facility, depending on state or territory of departure, then continue to self-isolate for 14 days. That means that any non-Japanese tourist who had plans for skiing in Niseko this winter would have had to defer them to next year.

So, does it feel like international travel is too hard right now?

OK. This where the cool heads come in.

I don’t think it is too hard.

Known unknowns are easier to deal with than unknown unknowns. We don’t know whether Pi, Rho or Sigma variants are on the horizon. But we do know that we’ll possibly have to face flight cancellations or delays, positive COVID tests or having to join long lines to get one, and ever-changing entry rules.

We just have to have titanium-strength preparedness.

Optimism plus caution. Expecting the best but preparing for the worst. We know the drill.

I suggest a few tactics:

If you’re not confident you can navigate all the changing rules without someone on your side, use a reputable travel agent, or travel advisor, as they now like to be called. Many of us (me included) have become adept at booking online and piecing together a jigsaw puzzle of accommodation and transport with only the assistance of Google, but Google isn’t going to do a thing when your connecting flight between Singapore and Rome has been cancelled, or even alert you to the fact.

A good travel advisor will keep you updated on any changes as they happen and suggest solutions. If you’re stuck, they won’t abandon you. Most of them bore the brunt of lockdowns and flight cancellations in 2020-21 and worked tirelessly for clients. They also have personal relationships with some hoteliers and tour operators and this can result in upgrades or at least enhanced service, handy if things go wrong. Some advisors charge a small fee for preparing your itinerary. It’s worth it.

If you choose to do it alone, don’t use third-party booking sites for hotels and flights. It’s much better to contact the hotel and airline directly. Especially for hotels, they’ll value you more highly if you’ve come to them that way. Ask if the hotel will match the online deal. They usually will.

Try to limit your trips to one destination, with as few stopovers or connections as possible. Last month, a friend was travelling to France, stopping over in Austria and Germany, when Austria suddenly closed the borders, necessitating a last-minute scramble to reschedule flights and accommodation. Expect more of this. It’s far easier if you’re only dealing with one set of border requirements, apart from those of your country of departure.

Compile a thorough kit of medications, including the best masks, even if you’re going to a big urban centre where supplies are readily available. You can’t always get the right drugs at the right time, especially in the middle of the night which, according to Murphy’s Law, is exactly when a fever or illness takes hold. It sounds alarmist, but this was good advice even before COVID.

I’ve now added a Pulse Oximeter to the kit to monitor my oxigen levels and heart rate. Even if it’s just for peace of mind, it’s a worthwhile investment in these times. I’d suggest packing a bunch of RATs, but you might find they’re cheaper at your destination, certainly if you’re in Australia right now, where a single test might easily set you back $30. (That was yesterday; today it might be $50 or more.)

Finally, pack a sense of humour. That’s vital.

Remember, it’s one step at a time. You’re not expected to perform the entire ballet.

Have you made the plunge and booked international travel for 2022? Are you having doubts? What might cause you to delay or cancel? I’d love to know.